Actually, Trump Would Be Terrible for the Economy

Lots of people who ought to know better have put a lot of effort towards talking themselves into voting for Trump. One of the most common paths “Sure, I don’t like plenty about him, but…” takes is that, despite his faults, a Trump presidency would nonetheless be better for the economy, and for business, than a Harris presidency.

This is almost certainly not the case. And the way it wouldn’t be the case would be economically catastrophic. Trump sometimes talks about deregulation, and lately he’s talked about abolishing income taxes. But let’s focus on the two policies he’s been most consistently vocal about, both of which he could likely bring about unilaterally, under his presidential authority: mass deportations and across-the-board tariffs.

Set aside the outright evil of mass deportation , and the unfathomable suffering it would inflict on innocent people. Much of the US economy depends upon immigrant labor. Mass deportations would disrupt labor markets dramatically, drive up the cost of labor, and cripple many industries, both blue collar (farming) and white (the tech and medical sectors). Mass deportations are a path to recession, or worse.

Tariffs, contra Trump’s insistence otherwise (an insistence grounded in just a pretty basic misunderstand of how tariffs work), would radically increase the price of goods throughout the economy. You’d pay more for most everything you buy, and probably a lot more. This makes you poorer, and your poverty harms US producers. The Smooth-Hawley Tariff Act is widely recognized as deepening and prolonging the Great Depression. High and widespread tariffs are economically stupid, pushed by people who are either economically stupid (like Trump) or who know how damaging tariffs are, but want them otherwise, out of nationalism, xenophobia, collectivism, or other corrupt motives. Trump’s tariffs would push the economy into recession, or worse.

This means Trump’s primary policies on which he’s campaigned would make the US economy worse, hurting both consumers and producers, decreasing economic dynamism and innovation, and causing the US to be poorer than it otherwise would be. The combination of the two would likely put the US into another depression.

None of that is good for industry. None of it is good for the stock market. None of it is good for the economy. This ought to be obvious. Which is why it’s so distressing to see so many people talking themselves into believing that, this time, economic and cultural nationalism will somehow work to achieve worthwhile ends.