Bad Policy Comes from Confusing "Complexity" and "Complication"

We tend to use “complex” and “complicated” interchangeably, but they’re different. I frequently refer to questions in public policy as both “complex and complicated,” for example, and the reason isn’t only semantic fussiness. Rather, recognizing how a question, situation, or area of inquiry is complex, complicated, or both can bring helpful clarity to our thinking about it. So I thought it would be useful to have a quick post setting out that difference, and that I can link to in future writing.

“Complicated” refers to a state of having many parts or steps. Think of a meticulously crafted watch: it boasts gears, springs, and screws, all interacting in a specific sequence. It is undeniably complicated, requiring specialized knowledge to assemble and repair. In the political sphere, a detailed tax code or a multi-stage application process for social benefits are examples of complicated systems. They possess multiple components and rules, often designed with specific logic and intended outcomes. While understanding and navigating a complicated system is challenging, it’s understandable and predictable. With sufficient expertise, a complicated system can be broken down, analyzed, and even optimized. Troubleshooting involves identifying the faulty component or broken rule and fixing it.

“Complexity,” is a different beast. A complex system is characterized by a multitude of interconnected and interdependent agents or elements, whose interactions are often non-linear and unpredictable. Think of a city: thousands or hundreds of thousands or millions of people, businesses, and institutions interact in ways impossible to fully predict or control. Traffic jams, shifts in public opinion, or the rise of new social movements are all emergent properties of this complex system, not easily attributable to a single cause. In the realm of politics and policy, issues like climate change, economic inequality, or ethnic conflict represent complex challenges. They involve numerous actors with diverse motivations, entangled feedback loops, and unforeseen consequences. Unlike a complicated system, a complex system is not simply “hard to understand.” It is inherently unpredictable. Efforts to impose simple, linear solutions on complex problems often backfire, leading to unintended consequences and exacerbating the initial issue.

There’s a danger in confusing complexity with complication. Politicians and policymakers often gravitate towards complicated solutions, believing that enough intricate rules and regulations will bring order to chaos. This can lead to overly bureaucratic systems that are difficult to navigate and ultimately fail to address the causes of the problem. Similarly, oversimplifying complex issues to fit within neat ideological frameworks can blind us to the nuances and interconnectedness that define these challenges.

Both “complex” and “complicated” describe states with many parts. Complicated problems can be understood. Complex problems, however, are characterized by interconnectedness, unpredictability, and emergent behavior, requiring adaptive strategies, collaboration, and a tolerance for uncertainty. Recognizing this difference isn’t just semantics. It’s crucial in mindfully diagnosing the problems we want to solve.